A new e-mobility study from automotive research firm Dataforce indicates the transportation future in Europe is electric, specifically battery electric vehicles (BEVs). One driving force is the EU plan to mandate only CO2-neutral new cars on the road beginning in 2035.
From January to May 2022, the share of fully electric vehicles in new registrations in 31 European countries, including the EU 28 nations, was 11.3%. The percentage was significantly higher in more progressive states, including the Netherlands (18%), Sweden (26.7 %) and the leader Norway (79.2%).
Noting that the plans of vehicle manufacturers are an important indicator, the Dataforce study reported “almost all brands have already publicly communicated plans and indicated time periods from which they want to offer exclusively fully electric vehicles.”
Other alternative power sources, such as e-fuels and hydrogen, “will hardly play a role in passenger cars, as available quantities are more likely to be needed for industrial purposes and large machines such as aircrafts,” according to the study.
Based on data compiled from auto manufacturers, the study indicates three points in time at which a particularly large number of manufacturers want to exit the internal combustion engine market: 2027, 2030 and 2035.
“For 2027, the extrapolation results in a BEV share of at least 21%. In 2030, the development is much faster with already 56% and in 2035 at least 80% will be reached,” the study reveals.
However, Dataforce notes, geopolitical influences can delay the BEV adoption. “For example, if the available quantities of lithium, cobalt and nickel needed for the construction of batteries are not available. A sufficient charging infrastructure must also be in place.”
Another factor favoring a purely electric future is the increasing number of new BEV-exclusive manufacturers entering the market, says Dataforce. While Tesla is the more prominent, Polestar and MG have been gaining market share. Other nascent e-car companies include Nio, Lucid, Xpeng, Rivian and some Asian companies. Together, the newcomers already account for a share of 18.7% of the total market.
The growing car subscription trend will also strengthen an electric future, the study reports. “Consumers use the flexible leasing offers to try out an electric car for themselves in everyday life. This allows them to minimize the risks of the new technology and to make up their own minds.”