Global automotive market research firm Dataforce forecasts a growth in BEV registrations in Germany next year, despite some grim forecasts of a slumping electric car market.
In recently released report, analysts at German-based Dataforce believe that although “high electricity prices and fewer incentives to buy will make electric mobility less attractive next year,” good reasons support an expanding BEV market in 2023.
Other more dire forecasts, including a much-quoted analysis by the CAR Institute, expect a sharp decline in electromobility in 2023– up to half the number of registration numbers, the Dataforce report points out.
In its own analysis, however Dataforce found, “Plug-in hybrids in particular have a much harder time without [government] subsidies, and the BEV fleet is not growing fast enough to sufficiently reduce CO2 emissions in traffic. In the case of new registrations with battery-electric drives, there are still good reasons for a further growing market.”
The report outlined six reasons for its sunnier outlook for the German BEV market:
1. Improved availability
Because 2022 figures only show how much product manufacturers could deliver, the demand would have been significantly higher. In addition to the effects of the semiconductor shortage, massive production losses in the first half of 2022 were due to the lack of cable harnesses. German manufacturers, in particular, were severely affected because the majority of harnesses sourced from Ukraine.
By 2023, 20% more semiconductors are expected to be delivered to the automotive industry globally. The problems with precursors from Ukraine have largely been solved, and the change in China's zero-Covid policy will ease supply chains.
2. Full order books
Delivery times do remain long, especially for electric cars. In some cases, manufacturers report existing orders will fill production capacity until autumn 2023. Should demand drop, the reduction will have only a very delayed effect.
3. Support continues
In addition to environmental bonuses, other important building blocks will help promote electric cars. The reduced company car tax remains very important; it also continues for PHEVs. The reduced vehicle tax also makes a difference over the holding period of an electric vehicle. Another financial incentive is the greenhouse gas quota, a government incentive to promote use of alternative fuels, thereby reducing a nation’s emissions.
4. Even with increased electricity costs, an electric car is cheaper to maintain
In 2023, the price advantage of BEVs related to energy costs will shrink, but electric energy will continue to be cheaper. Looking ahead – cars are just bought for a year – electricity prices are expected to develop better than gasoline prices. In addition, 60% to 80% of the electricity is not charged at expensive charging stations, but at home or in operation, where the kilowatt hour costs only about half.
5. Innovations set buying impulses
The number of new models will increase significantly again next year. In 2021 and 2022, Dataforce counted 31 new releases each. More than twice as many new BEVs – 72 – are expected for 2023. In contrast, only 34 new combustion engine models will enter the market. For vehicles with the latest technology, customers will have to opt for a BEV more and more often.
6. Increasing acceptance of BEVs
Surveys show increasing numbers of buyers are considering an electric car. Range anxiety and other hurdles continue to play a role but are getting smaller year by year. As the effects of climate change become more visible, environmental awareness and willingness to change also increase. Technical progress in BEVs also plays a role.